A slower, more cautious insurance market
Swiss Re Institute’s sigma 2/2025 report, published in July 2025, estimates that global premiums will grow by 2% in real terms in 2025, compared with 5.2% in 2024, with a marginal recovery to 2.3% in 2026. The report attributes the slowdown to weaker global growth and persistent policy uncertainty, chiefly from US goods tariffs, and expects real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024. Trade-exposed lines such as marine and trade credit are expected to feel the pressure most.
Fragmentation favours specialist cover
In a slower market, carriers have a stronger incentive to differentiate, which in our view points towards narrower, more tailored products rather than uniform cover. Live events show the effect clearly. AGBI reported in September 2026 that a UAE live-events agency had seen insurance costs rise by 10 to 15 per cent from pre-conflict levels, and that cancellation cover linked to war had become more expensive and harder to place, while event liability cover remained readily available.
Where refunds become complicated
Organisers can often insure against cancellation or postponement, although law firm Morgan Lewis notes that outcomes depend on policy wording, including whether cover is all-risk or limited to named perils. That protection sits with the organiser. It does not address the attendee who cannot travel because of illness, bereavement or another emergency, where standard cancellation terms typically apply and refund requests become a matter of goodwill, customer service cost and, at times, public criticism.
A separate layer of protection
Personal refund protection is distinct from both event cancellation insurance and standard cancellation policies. Offered as an optional extension at checkout and provides a full refund to the customer in eligible, highly sensitive circumstances, while the business retains the original revenue and can resell the place. For ticketing platforms and organisers, this allows more flexible terms without placing deferred revenue at risk.
The more fragmented the market becomes, the more valuable it is to separate the risks an organiser can insure from those a customer carries personally.
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